Up until a couple of years earlier, wasn't really that interested in J&K.Thanks to Islamic fundamentalism (yes it's not a freedom movement that the pseudo-ilks of Arundhatis would want us to believe) we, the ordinary Indians, have started taking J&K much more seriously and strategically. Beyond, the tourist destination of our dreams. We no longer wait for the liberal-leftist-congi intellectuals to inundate us with politically correct jargon, appeasement laden half-truths or manufactured news, any longer. We brew our own political analysis and make the counter narrative.
The ground situation of J&K
The green portion of the map to the west of the crown of India is POK (Gilgit-Baltistan).The folks of this region are highly dissatisfied with the Paki administration (so much for Islamic Brotherhood!). Once again this is Indian territory illegitimately administered by our Paki neighbour. A western longitudinal strip of GB forms what we call as North West Frontier Province.This (NWFP) is one of the 4 parts Pakistan would eventually split into if it continues to foster acrimonious relationship with India.
One might wonder why India decided not to win back GB after winning 3 wars.This inevitable question has plagued my conscience and curiosity since childhood. Honey, it's all about money - first, there's geographic disadvantage to win back this region and secondly it wouldn't be in India's economic interest to sustain this region even though this area is abound with natural resources.
The small yellow marked lingular region (Shaksgam Valley) to the north of Indian LOC is the erstwhile portion of POK now sold off or literally gifted by the Pakis to China (COK). So much, once again, for Muslim Brotherhood.
One can imagine the plight of ordinary Kashmiris, even if India decides to give up it's legitimate control of its crown (for the sake of argument and the fantasy of Islamic fundamentalists whose sole wet dream is to establish a delusionary Caliphate). These Kashmiri Islamic extremists & their pro azaadi chanting stooges would start clamoring and begging for Indian help if the Indian army decides so much as to blink! So much for the mirage of Islamic azaadi, huh... A weird concept in itself when you want a country based solely on religion. Strange the forefathers of democracy built their concepts around secularism, and equality not knowing some camel-herders from Saudi Arabia would one day concoct a cocktail of these principles with their idea of an Islamic Caliphate. So anti-thetical!
The other yellow portion to the north east of the crown of India is Chinese occupied Kashmir (Akshai Chin) which we lost to them in 1962. Thanks to my favorite Nehru Chacha who felt military wasn't required by India and the political solutions in the world could be reached through one of his proposed and now defunct NAM.
Once you are acquainted with this ground reality, it wouldn't take any Einstein to understand as to why Siachen is such a strategic stand-off for India. Once we lose Siachen, we make an easy access point between the two COKs and extremely easy land access to the Pakis from the Chinese.
Another view of Kashmir
If you now look at the second map, you would realise that Kargil which is located to the south west of the Siachen glacier is of immense military significance as well, perhaps, next only to Siachen. Relinquishing hold of Kargil would have been equivalent to a military hara-kiri (The Pakis would get the same access to Chinese if Siachen was lost, if not worse.) I consider this is as the water-shed of Indian military strategy, next only to the stand-off of the Spartan 300 of Leonides. Agreed there were intelligent lapses but winning against all odds was unthinkable!
Ladakh is the region still untouched by the Wahhabist-Salafist form of Islam (which originated in the house of Saudi Arabia subsequent to the discovery of oil, way back in 1930s). Unfortunately, political dissonance and the ignorance of us ordinary Indians is facilitating the settlement of Rohingya Muslims around this part of the world. Once successful, the almost neutral buffer that India enjoys due to the present peace-loving Muslims would alter drastically! Demographic changes, darlings, that's the recent name of the game.
Now I can't resist the urge to elaborate the present situation in Pakistan. Look at the 3rd map here. A glimpse gives you the idea that Pakistan comprises 4 major provinces - NWFP (A portion of the Gilgit Baltistan of POK plus a western strip to that of GB), Punjab, Sindh & Balochistan.
Now here's the crux of the problem - Balochistan which forms more than 50 percentage of Pakistan resents the step brotherly treatment meted out to it from the administrative centre of Pakistan - Punjab. Compounded by the fact that all major decisions in Pakistan are made by representatives of Punjab. Now just imagine, how UP or for that matter other portions of India would react if decisions concerning them were being made by people only at Delhi. Is it difficult to fathom? Human sentiments everywhere are the same. The microcosm of human feeling is representative of the macrocosm of the widely variable human emotions.
One balancing act that India needs to get right is about the optimal support towards the Balochis. I was very excited when the Indian prime minister openly supported the balochi cause. There's a political twist here - there's a portion of Baloch (west- controlled by the Iranians, east by the Pakis). Once the Baloch under Pakistan is fed with Indian help, the western portion would fire up and decide to join it's fighting twin. In the process, Iran would be terribly upset with India for unsettling their apple cart. Perhaps, this is what prevented the Indian government to grant political asylum to the representative of Baloch in exile!
Baloch aside, all the other regions of Pakistan is extremely proud of their indigenous heritage and resentful of the abuse they receive at the hands of Punjabis. So it's no bed of roses for the Pakistanis.The Punjab region of the Pakistan consists of citizens who have been resettled from the western UP region of India. This has only added to the disenchantment of the Pakis in other regions. Imagine how India psychologically treated the Bengali and Punjabi refugees post independence whom they considered as social pariahs and made fun of. Would they have allowed these "refugees" to make important decisions on their behalf?
The "recent" problems aren't not so recent in origin once you know the narrative. The current imbroglio have been amplified with the introduction of CPEC. This economic corridor would largely pass through the region of Balochistan. One might imagine that this would largely benefit the Balochis, but alas no! The Punjabis of Pakistan are subjugating the Balochis to the same degradation and denigration that they had perpetrated on the Bangladeshis three decades earlier. Another fear nagging in that minds of people, and rightfully so, is that once Pakistan defaults on its loan from the Chinese the entire territorial control would fall in their hands just as it occurred in Sri Lanka.So much for history - an utterly dismal tale of people repeating the same mistakes!
The region of Sindh also wants its own autonomy. Because of a political guffaw of my dear Jawahar (amidst the many in his kitty), Sindh couldn't be repatriated with India. The region is boiling with latent anger since ages now.
Apart from its fabled cuisine NWFP is also extremely proud of its heritage and resents the interference of the punjabi tentacle. When required the region could erupt into dissensions and civil war.
To sum up - this is what our Indian spy master Ajit Doval refers to when he warns Pakis that he would spilt them into 4. Only Punjab, which is a region smaller than Assam would remain of the fabled Islamic State.
But the counter argument for us is what will be the cost-benefit ratio for us in this bargain? Will it help us immensely to see Pakistan implode into these splinters or will India have to deal with 4 heads of nations eventually?
If Pakistan splinters we would first have to deal with the Irani ire. Kaput goes the dream of India, Afghanistan, Iran pipeline.
The nuclear button of Pakistan might fall into the wrong hands. It's currently under no sane leadership but then one might have to deal with an Islamic Medusa.There might be huge influx of immigrants seeking asylum in India.
The nuclear button of Pakistan might fall into the wrong hands. It's currently under no sane leadership but then one might have to deal with an Islamic Medusa.There might be huge influx of immigrants seeking asylum in India.
But my question is - is the situation any better now? Why don't we explore possibilities... I am not of the ilk of those ossified coagulating Indians who preclude use for the fear of misuse. The Kashmiri Islamic terrorists are the real kufrs and Inshallah, the Indian army should deal with them in a language best known to them
"Fight & Slay the pagans, wherever ye find them" (Q 9:5)
